jspace
Do LLM internal signals actually detect errors?
Preregistered reliability research on open models.
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Finding: a ~300 KB LightGBM classifier over Jacobian-lens workspace
readouts predicts Gemma-4-12B's wrong answers better than the model's own
output confidence, transfers across datasets within a task family, and fails a
pre-registered universal-transfer test in an informative way: transfer holds
on grounded and retrieval QA but breaks down on veracity-judgment tasks, so
it cannot yet be treated as a universal or sign-stable error signal.
Why it matters
Output logprobs are the standard cheap hallucination signal, but they are
dataset-specific: a confidence threshold tuned on one benchmark does not carry
to the next. An internal signal read from the residual stream through the
Jacobian lens (Anthropic's
global workspace paper,
July 2026) generalizes across datasets better than output confidence does in
some task families, at one extra forward-pass read. Just as important, the
campaign's prospective failure maps where such monitors stop working and
surfaces a confound that can affect other published probe results.
The campaign, in four pre-registered gates
25,340 prompts, 13 public benchmarks, 6 domains, Gemma-4-12B, greedy. Each
gate's threshold was registered before the data that scores it existed;
classifiers were frozen and SHA-256 hashed before the Stage 2 datasets were
generated.
| Gate | Registered test | Result |
|---|
| A | Combined (workspace+logprob) beats logprob-only under leave-one-dataset-out: mean AUROC increment >= +0.02, breadth >= 70% | HIT: +0.065, positive 6/7 datasets. Workspace-only 0.789 vs logprob-only 0.731 LODO |
| B | At a 20% routing budget, combined catches >= 5pp more errors, | |